In disappointing analysts’ expectations, in 2014 the world’s GDP has maintained the same pace of the previous two years, +3.4 %. So it was for the world trade also grew less (+ 3.4%) compared to the expectations expressed at the beginning of last year.
Considering the different parts of the world, 2014 has confirmed the sluggishness of the more developed economies (+ 1.8% after + 1.4% in 2013) than in emerging which, although slowing down compared to 2013, increased however the +4 , 6%. In the Eurozone, the recovery has been affected, as well as more modest expansion of international trade, low inflation and cyclical factors, such as the economic situation in Greece and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. Driving the European group, in 2014, it was Germany (+ 1.6%), followed by a + 1.2% from Spain. Practically still France (+ 0.4%) and Italy (-0.4%). LaBCE, compared to the exceptionally low levels reached actual and expected inflation, strong action on the money market. He minimized the official rates, carries out long-term refinancing to stimulate the supply of credit and has provided the massive purchase of debt, public and private. The effects of this program on the financial markets were large and positive.
In emerging and developing, economic activity decelerated further its growth (+ 5% from 2013 to +4 , 6% in 2014) held back by structural weaknesses and, in some cases, by heightened by financial problems.
The NATIONAL ECONOMY AND REGIONAL
In 2014, Italy’s GDP marked a further contraction (-0.4%). According to preliminary estimates, in the first quarter of 2015, the wealth has increased short-term (+ 0.3%) after five quarters of negative changes or, at best, zero. Support to GDP growth (three tenths of a point) also came this year from the foreign side. After the sharp declines of the 2012-2013 period, is a positive signal from the final consumption expenditure of households, which returned to growth (+ 0.3%) in 2014 . In the past year, the main drag on GDP growth (-0.7 percentage points) is derived from the continued fall in investment, which fell by a further 3.3%. At the sectoral level, the decline in the value added (-0.4%) was more pronounced in buildings, with a -3.8%, settle at lower levels by about a third compared to 2007. In the manufacturing sector, however, after the bending of the 2012-2013 period, the variation was significantly attenuated (-0.4%), although with significant sectoral differences. In the primary sector also fell (-2.2%), while the decline was interrupted in the value-added services (+ 0.1%).
With regard to our region, with reference is the most optimistic estimates of IRPET, is the most conservative of Prometeia source, the data emerging is that the much desired reversal of the economic cycle in Tuscany has not yet materialized. The estimates of Prometeia (for Tuscany) analyze the supply side of the economy, signaling a slight decline in the added value that touches the -0.3% : marked for agriculture (-1 , 6%) and construction (-2.3%) and more moderate for the industry (-0.5%) and the tertiary sector (-0.1%).
Even indicators from other surveys conducted in the region, representing a framework on balance very encouraging that continues to affect the labor market and credit. The number of people looking for work has grown at a rapid pace. The loans granted to companies in 2014, due to the decline in investment and the weakness of the economic cycle, have fallen again (-0.3%). During the year, the picture of the Tuscan manufacturing got worse: posting an average annual change of -0.7%. Also hurt the construction industry, with turnover in 2014 decreased by 7.8% over the previous year and the hours worked – on the basis of data made available from the Building Fund – marked a -7.5 %. Signs of great difficulty for the crafts, where sales recedes by 4.2% and the balance between businesses registered and closed, for the entire 2014, remains negative for more than 1,000 units. Best results appear instead in terms of services. According to a recent survey of SMEs to Unioncamere Toscana, trade (retail and repairs) marks, in fact, a + 2.8% and also the number of tourists, after the stagnation of 2013, to put a sign up 1.2%. Not least exports: exports continued to grow in 2014 at a rate of interest (+ 2.2% in nominal terms). In summary, for the Tuscany screening foreign, with some segments of services, continues to represent – for companies able to intercept the international application – the main way out from ‘ impasse where struggles the internal market.
ECONOMY PROVINCIAL
In 2014 the added value of the province of Pisa, according to Prometeia estimates, has marked a -0.4%. The wealth produced has been reduced mainly in construction (-1.8%), and agriculture (-1.7%); more moderate contraction in industry (-0.6%), while services have stagnated (-0.3%). Although this contraction of yet, that of 2014 seems still the lowest in years.
The production capacity of Pisa, according to surveys conducted by the Chamber of Commerce, is still the 30% lower than pre-crisis levels . The manufacturing of Pisa, still dependent on the evolution of the internal market, marking an average annual production contracted by 1.1% and employment by 0.3%. On the domestic market, however, we can be glimpsed some positive signs. Among them, the most obvious is certainly the return to growth of tourism Italian who, after three years of declines, recorded a + 3.4% increase in relation to 2013 . Even the airport is confirming excellent numbers on domestic flights (+ 7.3%). Best are in general the indicators related to the international application. In the face of industrial sales in 2014 moves back 1.7%, made over the border score a +1.2%. New orders, which total contract 2.7 %, the foreign component showed a shy positive sign (+ 0.3%).
The export, which in 2013 grew by 2.9%, in the year that has seen it It has just ended, a decrease of 1.8%. This result has, however, a specific sectoral connotation and, to a lesser extent, regional. In fact footwear (with a drop of almost 30%) and sales of mechanical products (-8.6%, after the excellent 2013), to weigh negatively on the overall result, while the two main export sectors, Leather (+ 3.6%) and motorcycles (+ 1.8%), recorded an increase. Considering the markets of production Pisan, flexing is especially Europe, with Germany (-11.6%) and the UK (-19.3%) which recorded a real collapse, while it is increasing exports to the Americas (+ 5.7%) and Asia (up 7.0%).
Overall, the picture is still heavy for those companies, and are the most, that make almost exclusive reliance on domestic demand, such as trade, construction and crafts.
A note deserve instead, the startup and innovative high-tech companies , which, relying on innovation, are positioned on the technological frontier recording performance of all respect.
A weigh on the lack of dynamism in domestic demand are the disappointing results of the market work, remained weak both in terms of employment, either in unemployment. Compared to 2013, the Istat data tell us that employment fell by about 3 thousand units, going to hit the services, the male component and the self-employed. The unemployment rate, while benefiting from the reduction of the labor force – that have gone to swell the ranks of inactive – fell by just two tenths of a point compared to 2013, reaching 8.3%. The authorized hours of redundancy fund have touched on the whole of 2014, 7.3 million, almost one more than in 2013!
The 2014 was a difficult year also on the side of the selection procedures. Record fact a further increase, from 718 to 785, the number of companies that have undertaken Pisan procedures of dissolution and voluntary liquidation. Even failures open, within a year, went from 87 to 117.
annual survey conducted on small and medium enterprises Pisan emerge some tentative signs of improvement. Between 2013 and 2014, in fact, the share of companies that claim to have increased their turnover (from 7% to 19%) and have ongoing investing activities: from ’8% to 27%.
The demand for credit, in line with the weakness that still characterizes the productive activity and investment, recorded only a slight increase compared to 2013. And’ interesting to note, in comparison with 2013, the growth in the proportion of those who have designed loans for new investments. The weakness in credit demand revealed by SME Pisan, is confirmed by the Bank of Italy data. In 2014, in fact, the credit granted to businesses Pisan is reduced by 1.6%. The long wave of crisis increases the difficulties of companies to repay loans but, thanks to recent measures of the ECB will reduce interest rates . The decay rate, calculated as the ratio between the flow of new bad debts and the consistency of outstanding loans, remains at historically high levels (4.5% in 2014) , with peaks particularly significant in construction (9%) .
SECTORS IN PROVINCIAL 2014
Mechanics
The mechanics, confirming the good results of 2013, marking a growth in production of 7.1%. The export of machinery, which is characterized by the ups and downs, in 2014 marks a rather substantial decline (-7.1%) while remaining in share 334 million euro.
Chemical-Pharmaceutical-rubber-plastics
Stable, in 2014, the turnover of the sector chemical-pharmaceutical-rubber-plastic (+ 0.3%). Underpinning the result is above the foreign component advancing 2.3%. With just over 200 million euro equivalent of exported, the industry touches a new record by scoring an even + 28% compared to 2008.
Skins Leather
The deterioration occurred in the second half of 2014, it brings the annual production of finished leather to lose an additional 2.1% and a 1.5% turnover. However, with 719 million euro of exported production (+ 3.6%), tanning confirms first sector at the provincial level in terms of sales abroad.
Electronics and transport
Good developments in the sector electronic-transport beyond national borders, with exports which, in 2014, marks a growth by 4.0%. Inside the sector stand out above all the cycles and motorcycles that, after two years of declines, finally found the path of growth (+1.8%).
Non-metallic Minerals
The sector of non-metallic minerals, including glass, after three years of growth, sometimes even supported, marks a stagnation in 2014 both for the production (-0.4%) and sales (+ 0.4%). Exports instead earn the third consecutive plus sign (+ 8.5%) thanks to the strong contribution of the sales made in France (+36%).
High tech
Interesting numbers tech Pisan. Given the growth in the number of companies (+ 2.5%) and the workforce employed (+ 9.8%), the fatturatoregistra a phase of adjustment though – for 2015 – entrepreneurs azzardino predictions of a ‘ acceleration (+2.6%)
Travel
In recent years, nevertheless, tourism Pisa has proven particularly resistant and in 2014, it seems to have found the way out of one of the worst periods in recent history. The number of nights back in fact, after two years, to increase (+ 1.2%). The real news, as already mentioned, is represented, after three years of contraction, the return to growth of domestic tourism which is shown above quota 1,6milioni attendance (+ 3.4%). The result is particularly important for the sector, whereas domestic tourism accounts for about half of the total. International tourism, which in 2013 had tried to support sector, but has marked a setback (-0.8%) due to the contraction of the main countries of origin: Germany (-4.1%), Belgium (- 16.5%) and the Netherlands (-6.8%). United States, but also Spain and Poland, are grown.
Aviation
The airport of Pisa, thanks to the recovery of tourists Italian, it ended 2014 with a new record of passenger traffic (4.7 million, + 4.6% on 2013), confirming the tenth national airport. Strong growth also traffic cargo , which saw the stopover close 2014 with a move goods more than tripled compared to 2013.
The data on the first five months of 2015 improve the already excellent results of 2014 by placing Pisa well above than the national airport system: + 9.4% for passenger traffic and + 103.2% for cargo.
Co
The world of cooperation acquires additional space within the economy of Pisa. The employees, after the contraction of 2013, growing again, reaching almost 9,400 (+ 4.9%, equal to 437 additional workers).
Agribusiness
The 2014, except for the wine, was one of the worst years for agriculture Pisa. Events calamitous weather and parasites of various kinds have aggravated condition general difficulties of companies that, at year end, down to 3,623 share. Exports of wine close the sixth consecutive year with a plus sign (+ 2.3%) thanks to the good performance of the US, Switzerland and Sweden.
Footwear
He continued, in 2014, the crisis of the footwear Pisa. The industrial production moves back an additional 1.8% and turnover by 1.3%. On the export front, it is the footwear (-29.4%) to drag in negative sales Pisan over-border.
Wood-furniture
Although better than in 2013, when the decline was ten percentage points, the production of wood-furniture in 2014 will be reduced by a further 0.7%. A concern, however, is the duration of the crisis that now has continued for more than seven years. The contraction in production is associated with a significant reduction in exports of furniture (-5.7%) caused, in turn, by the fall in exports directed to Russia and Ukraine (-7.6% and -34 , 5%, respectively) due to the civil war and embargo.
metal
Trends differ between domestic and foreign markets for metals. If, in fact, the total production moves back by 5.8%, exports recorded an increase (+ 4.3%) that allows the sector to reach a value of 151 million euro: the highest level of the past six years.
Construction
The tightening of the tax burden arising from the introduction of TASI (+ 9.8% in the revenue nationally between 2014 and 2013), it seems not to have affected on the dynamics of trading of residential property that, after six years, returned to grow by + 5.1% in the province of Pisa.
The economic survey conducted on the construction sector, part of the larger survey on SMEs, confirming the status of difficulties in the sector due to the stock of properties unsold. If the complex of construction companies, in 2014, leaves on the ground for 7.4% of turnover, than the craft down by as much as 17.9%.
monitoring carried out by ANCE Tuscany on public works reports, for 2014, a reduction of 6.4% in the number of notices published in the province of Pisa. In the face of this contraction, thanks to the 447 million euro for the construction of the new hospital in Cisanello, instead grow exponentially amounts.
Arts
The 2014 was another difficult year for the craft of Pisa. The total turnover marks, the average annual contraction of 7.4% and also employment down by 5.7%. The number of registered small businesses, while slowing the rate of fall , decreased by a further 0.5%, reaching a total of 10,637 units
Business
According to the survey on SMEs Pisan turnover industry, which includes more than retail even car sales, in 2014 marks a decrease of 7.6% against a commitment to hours worked, on the whole, stable compared to 2013 (+0, 4%).
OUTLOOK FOR 2015
According to the IMF, global growth expected for the current year should maintain levels certainly not exciting 2014 (+3.5%). Emerging markets, which in recent years had already recorded growth rates lower than expectations, should still decelerate to, in 2015, a + 4.3%. Advanced economies, in general, should instead benefit from the reduction of energy prices, accelerating growth from + 1.8% to + 2.4%. The Euro area, driven by the weakening of the currency, although weighted by the aftermath of the crisis, should be increased from + 0.9% to + 1.5%. Although gradually improving, the scenario is thus characterized by a high degree of uncertainty.
According to Prometeia, the growth of value added Tuscan scheduled for 2015 (+ 0.6%) marks a result better than in Italy (+ 0.5%) and also the province of Pisa (+0.4%). They weigh on the outcome of Pisa, although it is a few tenths of a point, less dynamic services (just a + 0.4%) and industry (+ 0.6%) compared to the two areas taken as reference. It is estimated that the ones we have just presented, which do not yet take full account of the more favorable conditions of recent months and that, therefore, may eventually be the best.
That the climate is brightening, although slowly and with many uncertainties, say it also data of the recent survey on SMEs Pisan. This improvement is particularly evident in terms of turnover, where the percentage of firms that declare rising increased from 19% in 2014 to 22% expected for the current year.
CONCLUSIONS
Maybe we got the breakthrough we have been waiting for years. If you will be really adequate to the expectations and potential of our economy will depend on each of us. certainly count the ambitions of entrepreneurs and their commitment to investing in the future. But also depend on the capacity of the territory and the institutions that represent it, to create value next to businesses and interfacciarne the business. to rebuild the post-crisis will indeed require an absolute strategic coherence between companies and territories. And the times must be those of the economy.
We come from seven years in the trenches, with balances economic and social sharply in red . Since 2005, Pisa has lost 6.3% of its value added. More than 2,500 euro per capita. Manufacturing output is still below 30% compared to pre-crisis. Exports, mainly due to the performance of sectors such as the wheels 2-3 and weaker European demand, are struggling to return to its 2007 level Massive was also loss overall employment: -7.3 million units between 2008 and 2014 , with 7,000 fewer seats in manufacturing, 1,700 in construction and 1,600 in trade-tourism. And it’s bad data on the youth unemployment, which – although to a lesser extent than other areas – between 2007 and 2014 has increased by some 15 percentage points. I want to emphasize as well the latter, because we risk burning a generation of play and the future! On the credit front, the issue of missing payments has created significant problems in the banking system. The decay rate has quadrupled since the beginning of the crisis, forcing banks to set aside resources and make writedowns which had an impact on the budgets and severely limited the lending . Similar problem also applies to companies that have managed to survive, which today are management heavily weighted by those that close or that, however, do not pay.
And yet, despite everything, we are an area that has shown the elements of great importance in many fields.
I high technology: 288 companies , that bill around one billion euro, Pisa is the second reality Tuscany after Florence for many companies. I think of the start up innovative , where densities are first and fourth in Tuscany in Italy, while in absolute occupy second place regional and eighteenth in Italy . I think of the business networks that, with 195 companies and 41 contracts, occupy the fourteenth national number of member companies.
I refer even to companies such as SAT , which in recent years has not experienced the crisis. The average rate of passenger growth in the period 2007-2014 (+ 3.1%) more than doubled the national average (+ 1.5%). Remember, finally, the performance of some of the more traditional sectors, such as tourism, food processing, tanning, mechanical and chemical-pharmaceutical . Between 2008 and 2013 the average growth rate of tourists in our province (+ 1.8%) is much higher not only compared to Tuscany (+ 0.5%), but also to the Italian media, which has remained stagnant. The agri-food, despite certain difficulties last year, scored good results on the international front, with exports of wine and agricultural products that grow again, reaching a mark + 18% compared to 2007. The tannery, despite having lost a third of the production and 15% of businesses with regard to the pre-crisis peak, he saw sales abroad back above the levels of 2007 (+ 5%). Mechanics, including transportation, is the beating heart of Pisa. It is for its weight – because a third of exports Pisa comes from this sector – but also for the high propensity for innovation that spreads through the supply chain to the whole economy. This capability has enabled the sector to deal with the crisis, stemming losses and laying the groundwork for when restart the investment cycle and consumer durables. Even the chemical-pharmaceutical, albeit with smaller numbers, the excellence within the economic framework of Pisa. This, thanks to the innovative production, in the presence of numerous research centers, universities and high-quality human capital.
The success of these sectors, and within certain companies than others, it did not happen by chance. The filrouge that the alloy is in fact represented by the continuous search for quality and innovation of process, product and market . A path which boosted the ability to look beyond the price competition to focus firmly on aspects, often intangible, but not less important.
In summary, what they say these numbers? That in Pisa there are energies for the re-start; but we need to start growing again by whole numbers, not for handfuls of GDP. And for this we need to raise our rate of entrepreneurship. It takes more business, especially more quality enterprise. Without firm does not create wealth and employment; and free enterprise system is also welfare is at risk. We need to encourage innovation and applied research, which feed the productivity and make it more competitive territories by strengthening exports and attractiveness.
We need more Pisa world, both in terms of foreign tourist presence, both in terms of investors; and it takes more Pisa in the world, and therefore more exports, with a system of promotion able to collect the full challenge of markets . Our main international port, the airport, continues to grow and will do even better with the new management company that finally realizes the synergy with Florence. According to the development plans of Tuscany Airports – marking the end of the competition between the two airports – the total capacity between now and 2029 is expected to reach 11.5 million passengers / year: 7,000,000 and 4,500,000 to Pisa in Florence. Almost double compared to today! And to achieve these objectives the company is fielding investments necessary that, in Pisa, will – by 2017 – to a substantial expansion of the terminal passengers. But Pisa can not just wait passively for a small portion of those who remain on the land territory; We must all work together to change this perspective flotation: the tourism industry is now one of the most aggressive and our destination has the right characteristics to compete as a protagonist on the international tourist market.
More generally, the situation forces everyone to explore new paths of development of the markets and reposition permanently where are the new engines of global growth. So what to do?
1. First of all strengthen the infrastructure
The economic development moves from networks . As we said, Pisa benefits from the new system Tuscan airport ; the connections between the airport and the city which will be completed with the People Mover; and proximity to the port of Livorno . But this is not enough. Must further speed rail connections with Florence, to be fully “within” the European network of High Speed and High-Speed Railway ; with special attention to the quality of the rolling stock. And it is also necessary to complete Highway Tyrrhenian , whose first project dates back to almost 50 years ago; without forgetting the branching out to the North East of Pisa . I know that some of these priorities are, for a long time, the “stone” of these relationships, but should be seen for what they really are: pre-conditions for the revitalization of the area. We can not continue to treat them as useless “words to lose”, because at stake is the development; development that is asking an epochal discontinuities in terms of rates of achievement.
2. Simplify the public administration
E ‘necessary that any intervention or regulation of public administration is put in place using the yardstick of supporting business growth and the simplification of procedures, including at Local, moving expenses and tax burden from those who risk and invest in those who occupy positions of income . Corruption, usury, illegal trade and unfair competition are absolute evils, not only for the business system. To this they must be fought with force, especially from government. There is no market that functions efficiently and fairly without institutions that safeguard the respect for the rules of the game and ensure legality and transparency. The processes set in motion by the law Delrio are an opportunity to transform the entire public administration. But it serves to give legs to the reform, moving in a clear and quick functions that must be reassigned, without leaving companies at the mercy of dangerous transition periods. must pursue serious goals of efficiency, simplification, quality of public services: this also applies to the Chambers of Commerce, many of them – and among them our own – have already anticipated the change.
3. Expand the opportunities for access to credit
In terms of credit, and other essential lever while painful issue, you must move to a system less bank-centric, involving funds medium to long term investment and strengthening the system of guarantees . In this regard I want to mention Fidi Toscana is of major importance from the point of view of the resources available, but that still has critical in dealing with business. I refer, in particular, the length of the response time and the complexity of the procedures, that the small and medium enterprises, if not properly supported, are not able to handle.
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