C ‘is a reflection that turns in the financial world, but no one wants to scream: QE, or maneuvers with which central banks enter the trillions of dollars, are not working. Yes, the US GDP is now firmly strong and also the data on unemployment – set at 5% – give the ‘idea that the worst is over.
Two data that should push the Federal Reserve to after ten years to raise the cost of money , currently close to zero. In fact, the recovery has not restored confidence and did not start again consumption, as you imagined. And also “work” leaves several questions: 1) almost one American out of two is not a permanent position, the 5% of unemployed refers only to those who in ‘last month have registered as unemployed. 2) the rate of participation in the work in fact is the same as in 1979. 3) The real wages of American workers are nailed, despite the ‘inflation – is the real indicator of the recovery only on paper – is far from the 2%, universally recognized as a parameter of the economic and financial health.
Even in Europe it does not go so well, despite the Q, launched in March by Mario Draghi and the promise of a doubling of forces – more Securities purchased by the ECB – do not seem to warm up much the ‘real economy. In Europe, as from ‘the other side of’ Atlantic, increasing the jobless and the chronically factor for immigrants now it can not be considered as a resource. If anything, the ‘entry of foreigners in the economy to further lower real wages.
The problem in general is the same: do not turn the money. Do not push the investments and, therefore, the certain jobs, essential to ensure more consumption. As Plato would say what is happening in the world of ideas – financial markets – does not come to the world of things, that is the life of every day.
We want to say that the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of England They have it all wrong? The answer can be yes or no. For a simple reason: against the real, lasting rebirth are playing a key role on two factors: 1) China and emerging are not more of the extras, but now the leading actors in the film world. 2) The technology is rewriting the way we work, produce and consume, is reshaping our needs and at the moment we do not know yet the right way. 3) Raw materials (oil lows) and government securities almost below zero push yes recovery, but almost by inertia.
The changes – new in this’ era – are fast. While countermeasures are still slow. We head in ‘technological age, while the body is in that industry. In all this then increases the suffering of the banks, not only Italian.
And here’s the solution to the problems proposed by the gurus of Wall Street: abolish the cash.
The chief economist of Citigroup, Willem Buiter, is convinced that the United States should impose interest rates even lower to get the money to the ‘real economy. For him you need an interest rate of 6% to a condition that the government abolish the cash, otherwise the plan will not work. Because in fact if the Fed and ECB decided this extreme measure is being talked about, c ‘is the risk of an escape of investors from banks, where an account of $ 100,000 would be 94,000.
Even the Swiss have Bas It decided to apply negative rates of 0.25% on deposits of up to 100,000 francs and 0.75% on a larger figure. And if all other institutions conform themselves in this fashion? To avoid what would be the ‘apocalypse of the financial system as well Andy Haldane, member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in practice the’ body of the British Bank of England ‘equivalent to the US FOMC, are made “illegal cash”.
Only Matteo Renzi seems to go against the trend, it decided to raise the maximum level of 3,000 euro for cash payments. Just so we could defend our portfolio, our work and our savings on what would be technically legalized theft.
Giuliano Zulin
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