The return to growth of the Italian industrial production in April is definitely a positive sign for the country’s economy: after the brake in March, Istat noted an increase in production of both monthly basis (+ 0.5%), both on an annual basis (+ 1.8%), taking into account calendar effects, with one day earlier worked in April 2016 compared with April 2015.
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Positive also the spread of growth in almost all sectors of manufacturing, which on the whole is growing – on a trend basis – by 2.6%. A fact that probably suffers – look at the senior economist of the studies and research direction of Intesa Sanpaolo, Paolo Mameli – cyclical increase in exports to non-EU countries registered in April (+ 3.9% compared to the previous month). The exception is the sector of textiles and clothing, which in April lost 3.3% in value over the previous year. But for the other industries the sign is positive, with good performances in particular for transport, now a constant, manufacture of coke and refined petroleum (+ 6.3%), for rubber and plastics ( + 5.9%) and chemical (+ 5.2%). well the food industry and that of machines.
“spread increases across all sectors, with the best performance even on cars and components”
All sectors, notes Franco Mosconi, professor of economics and industrial policy at the University of Parma, in the medium-high technology and characterized from research and experiments on product quality: “the mechanics in all its specializations has the opposite sign – notes -. It is always the Italian manufacturing industry and queen is here today that focus especially the novelties brought by the revolution we call “Industry 4.0″ ». Not only that: it adds Mosconi, “in sectors where innovation and openness to international markets go hand in hand.” The automotive sector as a whole, underlines the ANFIA, recorded a 4.9% year increase in the first quarter 2016 reached + 14% over the same period of 2015.
April 2014-April 2016, trend percentage change on the same month last year, data adjusted for calendar effects
the situation is different for activities non-manufacturing: very pronounced is the decline recorded by mining activities on an annual basis (-15.7%), a figure which probably weighs blocking Eni’s operations in Basilicata imposed in early April, as confirmed by the decrease of 5, 5% on a monthly basis. Negative results were also the supply of energy, fell 1.4%.
Although this is not a striking growth, the April figure is still higher than expected, as noted by Intesa Sanpaolo, who had expected an increase of 0.3%. “However – he explains Mameli – confirm the expectations of a lower contribution of the industry’s contribution to GDP in the second half. GDP should grow by 0.3% according to our estimates, compared with 0.6% in the first quarter, when the industry in the strict sense had accounted for two-thirds. “
percentage change trend, in April 2016 compared to April 2015
The slowdown in the second quarter is also confirmed by the Confindustria study Centre, which was an increase industrial production by 0.2% in May, compared to April, and expects an acquired 0.4% quarterly change for the second quarter, assuming that recovery of prosgeuirà production even in May and June, albeit still weak rhythms. In May, they explain from the CSC, “has slowed the growth of total orders, because the foreign component mostly affected by the collapse in demand in Russia.”
At this rate, it will be difficult to reach that growth of ‘ 1.2% of GDP set as an objective by the government. Confirms Paolo Mameli, that “we must see how they will move services and export, but the risk is that we will have to revise downwards this figure at around 1%.”
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