numbers and scenarios
Milan , July 28, 2015 – 07:24
After the generation of temporary workers, who are now between 30 and 40 years in danger, therefore, to produce a phenomenon even more dramatic, the lost generation. Entire classes of age destined to remain outside the labor market. A sound the alarm is a report of the IMF, an institution which in the past has taken more than a few corner and therefore not comparable to the Word. Said the former minister Tiziano Treu: “This is a phase in which the economy is difficult to predict in five years, let alone 20!”. And then labor are so many variables, “given the macro growth but also its mix and then we can not forget the specific policies directed to work.”
So we take the work of the IMF with pliers and let’s use but as a stimulus to give a look forward on the strength of the (few) things that we know. Except that the alarm about slow growth can only be shared obliged to say that it is not even automatic that the increase in GDP corresponds to an increase in jobs. There is now a robust literature on filming jobless, unemployed. Governor Ignazio Visco, very attentive to the problems of labor, in Final warned that “there is a risk, particularly in the South, that the recovery may not be able to generate employment to the extent that has happened in the past when exiting cyclical phases unfavorable “. And the reason is simple: we are crossing a technological cycle particularly lively that “the demand for labor by the most innovative companies might not be enough to reduce unemployment in the short term.”
The new revolution of the machines , therefore, eats job or at least does not produce a significant extent. Let us add another consideration that knows bitterness: the best of the Italian, the pocket multinationals that run the global markets, are capable of producing more value than employment. Thanks to the restructuring done during the crisis have become authentic hare, but also much faster leaner. And therefore if the most innovative companies are not labor intensive, to ensure broad occupation we must think of something else. According Visco the other is “more investment to create new developments for land conservation and landscape, to the cultural heritage which can produce important benefits even outside of the sectors most directly involved, such as construction and tourism ‘ . Also because a sector, large retailers, which in recent years has generated jobs is now marking time and begins to restructure.
At the IMF does not like it when we talk about work in Italy we having in mind the dynamics of self-employment, which are incurred as evidenced by the more than 50,000 VAT numbers that continue to open every month. Two sectors are privileged by this flow: the restaurant but is likely objective saturation and Agriculture, which is instead reserving unexpected news. Finally, the arguments on the lost generation Italian we must then connect to the changing geography of work. Because the additional risk that we are running is to train young – talent and also not – that create value abroad. The figure of London which now has more citizens of Padua Italian – and the estimate is conservative – illuminates more than words yet another paradox of the Italian work. Moral of the story: even those who may think that the report of the IMF comes to conclusions is better anyway that is not clear.
July 28, 2015 (modified July 28, 2015 | 07:24)
© ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
No comments:
Post a Comment