The States-General on Climate Change convened in Rome on 22 June by the government are a positive sign of attention, especially if they will be followed by a coordination of the activities of the various ministries. But that the country can meet the challenge must be a concrete and firm commitment to this and future governments.
Until a plan is coherent and appropriate climate, can be useful, in view of Paris and over, do some reasoning on decarbonisation pathways that our country will / will start.
As a first reference must be considered goal Europe , legally binding, arriving in 2030 to a level of greenhouse gas emissions 40% lower than in 1990. Having also in mind, in the background, the need to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050 . A commitment to be evaluated very carefully, especially when you have to plan infrastructure investments in long-term (power plants, LNG terminals, pipelines, etc.).
Let’s start with you evolution of demand . In the last century consumption it was characterized by a consistently positive trend: the one that varied was the rate of growth and the correlation with GDP. Energy consumption in the coming decades will see a rather sharp decline, with a marked gap than the performance of the economy. In electrical industry the reduction will be rather limited because it will increase the electrification of the energy system.
The sector that will suffer the biggest reductions in consumption will be calendar thanks to the gradual acceleration of boost redevelopment of entire edific ie areas that could lead to the end of the next decade, annual energy savings 10 times higher than the current ones. Basically, thanks to innovative financial solutions that allow, with a game-turn, enhance the reduction of imports of natural gas, and the reorganization of the offer through the industrialization of operations, you can not only remove the ” shale gas “represented by cutting consumption of our inefficient building stock, but also rehabilitate whole neighborhoods.
It will also continue to increase energy efficiency of the industrial sector , profondamene affected by the crisis and globalization. Structural change predictably will continue with a progressive accentuation of choices to processes and productions circular . The choice is obvious, in a country like ours, poor in raw materials. For example, it will dramatically reduce the role of petrochemical, partially offset by the implementation of new biorefinery fed by surrounding territories. The digital revolution will reduce consumption in traditional sectors and will spread innovations such as 3D printing can promote the emergence of new companies.
In terms of transport will make their way alternatives such as biomethane and second-generation biofuels , but the real news is the electric mobility , which in next decade will see explosive growth, with more and more vehicles connected until you get to those no driver . And of course they will spread the soft solutions, such as car and bike sharing, Uber, Bla Bla Car, car pooling, etc., That will lead to a reduction in the number of physical drive.
Let us now supply of energy to understand how will continue the march towards decarbonisation. Let’s start with where the industry already have been achieved extraordinary results, unfortunately recklessly buried by controversy on incentives. We speak of course of the g enerazione electricity with sources that met in 2014 37% of the application electric. At this rate has helped the proportion of photovoltaics, 7.5%, the highest share of solar in the world.
For the past couple of years there has been a slowdown of this race and it must be expected that the growth of renewables will continue in a minor key. But beware, this dynamic will be characterized by the progressive impose pairing PV + accumulation in the next decade, with the prices of solar modules that will halve in 2025. The race will accelerate then to the 100% renewable electricity target , or almost, to 2050.
The transition to a smart grid will also enable our country to acquire sophisticated skills in advance that They can then usefully be applied abroad. More generally, whereas investment world on rinnovabil will multiply by 3-4 times in the next 10-20 years, we will expand the space for our companies already now they are intervening in many countries. With a reflection also on the production side of the green technologies thanks to international alliances, such as those that are envisaged with a doubling of investment in research provided by the ‘Apollo’ that it should start after Paris.
On the front energy supply must not forget the share heat at different temperatures used in the civil sector and in industry. The sun will do its part, as well as biomass. For the latter will start a serious program of forest management that allows you to use in a rational way this huge heritage, currently largely abandoned. The use of petrol and diesel in transport, eventually will go to reducing the rationalization of mobility, increasing the efficiency of the means and the break in the electric vehicle market.
In this scenario will also contemplated the possibility of subtract carbon from the atmosphere both with technological solutions, but especially by the increase of humus in the soil, for example, through large-scale application of the “ biogas made well . “
Of course this is not a path neither easy nor automatic , despite the climatic constraints destined to become increasingly stringent. To start this transition must vision and ability to govern the changes using all the levers, starting with environmental taxation . So far you have not perceived the importance that the “ Energiewende “, the energy turnaround, can also perform to boost the economy.
States General on Climate Change called in Rome on June 22 by the government are a positive sign of attention, especially if they will be followed by a coordination of the activities of the various ministries (a decisive step and never really started) and a real interaction with the actors in civil society and productive. But because the country can meet the challenge must be a quantum leap forward in the commitment of this and future governments.
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