At the Geneva Motor Show 2016 we have seen a lot of news. We admired hypercar increasingly technological, with performance to scream in the case of Chiron, the Centenary Lamborghini and Ferrari GTC4Lusso, but also “democratic” cars that are increasingly focusing on content and, in particular, on the entertainment system.
the car is becoming more and more the link between the user and the smartphone . We went from a system with a simple bluetooth connection, where the most they could manage their music library of songs and calls, in systems that allow a real interconnection between infotainment and smartphone. All houses have introduced many innovations in this point of view, even FCA renewed its Uconnect, and the levels achieved by the houses are already now very good, although it is still much room for improvement.
the widespread distribution of rejection “smart phones” smartphones has caused an evolution of the automotive industry, in fact, perhaps I should say coevolution. The result is, as we have had occasion to say in this article, a technological car, safe and connected.
The carmakers have lost the search for identity
How will the carmakers to keep up with all of this technology and, together, to churn out models of the pace with the times? A question that most lawful whereas the business of cars is definitely not very profitable: Apple, for example a consumer electronics giant, closed the fourth quarter of 2015, at 51.5 billion with a net profit of 11.1 billions of dollars; GM, which firmly occupies the top three positions of global automobile manufacturer, in 2014 has earned 4 billion dollars on revenue of 156.
Building a car costs a lot of money . Marchionne knows that it is always looking for technological alliances to make more profitable this business that requires substantial investments.
The point is to keep pace with these steeped in technology time the cycle life of a car dropped . If, for example, we take a 2008 car is already far in terms of technological content from a media modern car which, among other things, presents the aid of the braking device useful for avoiding rear-end collisions, or the detection system blind spots. Electronics at the service of security, active and passive.
challenge , the present and the future of the industry, therefore, is to introduce the latest technology as often as possible , but did not weigh heavily in the field of production of the car. In short, trying to recover in a shorter span of time the cost of equipment for the production and distribution of cars.
The life cycle of a car is currently estimated at around seven years. But we know that, such as happened with the case of the Alfa Romeo MiTo, this period is also marked by restyling, which most often consist of simple facelift, ie minor changes and does not affect the cost of the chain assembly and sub-suppliers.
But, as demonstrated recently at the Geneva Motor Show, this time frame is intended to also decrease due to the fact that smart phones and cars are becoming increasingly integrated, even taking into account the progress in software and processing power. The latter elements that will be of fundamental importance for the regular dissemination of the car automatic driving.
Volvo, for example, , which is a manufacturer always very forward with regard to the safety systems, it has implemented in their own sedan top of the range, S90, and V90 in the SW, to an automatic braking system that was the best on the market, at least according to a study of ‘Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, IIHS, independent center.
a concrete example, that of Volvo, which shows even more how important the sophistication of radar and electronics systems in order to achieve and implement the safety systems in really able to reduce traffic Incidents under normal use conditions of the medium.
Undoubtedly the manufacturer who more than any other ( re) thought the car as a technology platform where normal coupons are (almost) replaced by the control unit firmware updates, has been Tesla Motors , which in a few years has managed to make inroads not only between lovers of electric cars but also among the “old” in the automotive sector. Tesla, which in any case is also facilitated by a reduced product portfolio, has made updates to the software and, together, has also improved the hardware of its vehicles. Eloquent in this regard was the updating of the Model S body after October 2013, the Tesla sedan caught fire as the battery pack had been punctured by a piece of iron.
The life cycle of a car will decrease to cope with frequent technological innovations?
Not all car manufacturers are in agreement to reduce canonical six / seven-year life cycle of a car. “In the future I do not see a reduction in the product cycle for the car,” said Klaus Froehlich, head of BMW research and development.
The CEO Volvo, Hakan Samuelsson , explained: “this is how effectively you use your capital too shorten the life cycle of the product means that this will not be profitable and thus not be able to recover the investment money.”
“We are very cautious about whether we should speed up the life cycle of a vehicle. Seven years is a fixed period of time,” said Daimler board member responsible for research and development of the Mercedes-Benz group, Thomas Weber.
But let’s take a practical example: the cost of a stamping press to create the body panels of the coast about 40 million euro, an investment that has to be recovered in the course of many months even for the producers of premium cars, where we know that the margins are much higher.
Mercedes, BMW and other manufacturers are trying to reduce the time required for the development of a machine, by introducing interchangeable parts that can be upgraded at a makeover but did not affect the length of the car’s life cycle.
But the reasons for maintaining the life cycle to the standard duration of seven years is to prevent the introduction of next-generation products before customers have had time to pay for the cars on the market. AutomotiveNews gives the example of leasing contracts where generally the last 36 months the monthly fee varies according to the resale value of the hired vehicle. The introduction of a new model too soon could weigh heavily on the resale value of the vehicle, potentially increasing the rental rates for buyers of vehicles belonging to the previous generation.
The BNP Paribas analysts argue that volumes of the lease contract of the German automakers have doubled since 2007, to about 80 billion euro at the end of last year. The BMW leasing contracts represent more than half of its market capitalization.
A conservative approach and innovative at the same time
Mercedes and BMW have projected towards a type of two-pronged approach: on the one hand keep the expensive components, such as the solid parts of the car (hardware) for a period of about seven years and, jointly, to perform software updates that concern the implementation or its update of entertainment systems.
Weber Daimler said: “We see a different potential for hardware and software optimization. L ‘hardware, the steel, the engine, the crankcase, the transmission should have long life cycles, while the software will be updated in the most frequent manner, as well as the processors. “
key future automotive will be precisely this: finding a way to update the product without having to invest heavily on hardware. A strategy, the latter, able to be able to amortise the investment costs in a low profitability sector. Potentially, then, with modular platforms, such as the one presented by Toyota, tnga (Toyota New Global Architecture), the life cycle of the car produced could even grow even reaching out to two generations. Another example is to Hyundai that with ICONIQ has developed a modular platform that can accommodate three different types of green cars: Ioniq hybrid, electric and Ioniq Ioniq Plug-in.
We know that building a car from scratch every seven years -with the subsequent update of montaggio- chains requires an investment that is very difficult to recover. Solid examples are the Alfa Romeo Giulia and the Maserati Levante, models which have required many adjustments, resulting in the output delay on the market, also due to technical problems.
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